Weekly analysis
2026-10-25 · Verified model evidence · stories selected by Amazon Nova 2 Lite
The published blend assigns 100% to achievement. This report uses the published ranking, not visitor slider settings.
UCLA · No. 1
UCLA held its position at No. 1 with a 7–0 record and a model score of 95.7. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 59.8 from record difficulty and 13.9 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.6 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.9, expectation shortfalls 0.0, and the current streak 0.5 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.9 points. The latest included result was a W against Michigan State, 28–10 (home). Its scoring margin was +7 at halftime and +21 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Wisconsin (17–7, home).
Miami · No. 2
Miami held its position at No. 2 with a 7–0 record and a model score of 94.7. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 59.3 from record difficulty and 14.0 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.8, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.8 points. The latest included result was a W against Pittsburgh, 52–23 (home). Its scoring margin was +24 at halftime and +31 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Wake Forest (33–20, away).
Utah · No. 3
Utah moved up 6 at No. 3 with a 7–0 record and a model score of 93.7. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 58.9 from record difficulty and 13.5 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.4 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.6, expectation shortfalls -0.2, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.6 points. The latest included result was a W against Houston, 21–13 (home). Its scoring margin was -3 at halftime and -6 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Houston (21–13, home).
Kentucky · No. 6
Kentucky moved up 7 at No. 6 with a 7–1 record and a model score of 92.4. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 58.5 from record difficulty and 12.4 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.5, expectation shortfalls -0.2, and the current streak 0.5 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.5 points. The latest included result was a W against Vanderbilt, 34–17 (home). Its scoring margin was +4 at halftime and +7 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is LSU (35–34, home).
UTSA · No. 12
UTSA moved up 24 at No. 12 with a 7–1 record and a model score of 86.1. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 57.2 from record difficulty and 8.5 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.6, expectation shortfalls -0.2, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.6 points. The latest included result was a W against Tulane, 42–19 (away). Its scoring margin was +8 at halftime and +22 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Texas State (31–26, away).
Ohio State · No. 4
Ohio State moved up 1 at No. 4 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 93.2. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 57.6 from record difficulty and 14.3 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.2, expectation shortfalls -0.1, and the current streak 0.5 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.2 points. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Indiana (19–15, away).
Indiana · No. 5
Indiana moved up 1 at No. 5 with a 7–1 record and a model score of 92.6. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 58.0 from record difficulty and 13.9 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.3, expectation shortfalls -0.6, and the current streak 0.2 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.3 points. The latest included result was a W against Michigan, 13–6 (away). Its scoring margin was +6 at halftime and +3 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Nebraska (20–17, away).
BYU · No. 7
BYU moved down 3 at No. 7 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 90.5. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 56.7 from record difficulty and 13.6 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 19.1, expectation shortfalls -0.2, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +19.1 points. The latest included result was a L against UCF, 31–39 (away). Its scoring margin was -3 at halftime and -3 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Notre Dame (28–24, home).
Notre Dame · No. 8
Notre Dame moved down 5 at No. 8 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 90.5. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 56.3 from record difficulty and 14.4 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.9, expectation shortfalls -0.5, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.9 points. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Wisconsin (41–13, neutral).
Wake Forest · No. 9
Wake Forest moved up 5 at No. 9 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 89.5. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 55.9 from record difficulty and 13.0 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.6 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.8, expectation shortfalls -0.1, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.8 points. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Louisville (30–27, away).
Georgia · No. 10
Georgia held its position at No. 10 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 88.7. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 55.4 from record difficulty and 13.9 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.5, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.5 points. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Alabama (20–17, away).
Northwestern · No. 11
Northwestern moved up 8 at No. 11 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 87.1. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 54.1 from record difficulty and 12.8 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.3, expectation shortfalls -0.1, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.3 points. The latest included result was a W against Rutgers, 42–14 (home). Its scoring margin was +22 at halftime and +14 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Penn State (34–13, home).
Arizona · No. 13
Arizona moved up 9 at No. 13 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 85.5. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 53.3 from record difficulty and 12.9 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.4 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.9, expectation shortfalls -0.4, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +17.9 points. The latest included result was a W against Iowa State, 39–3 (home). Its scoring margin was +22 at halftime and +22 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Cincinnati (34–7, home).
Texas Tech · No. 14
Texas Tech moved down 7 at No. 14 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 85.5. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 55.0 from record difficulty and 12.0 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.2, expectation shortfalls -0.9, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.2 points. The latest included result was a L against Cincinnati, 24–37 (away). Its scoring margin was -18 at halftime and -16 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Houston (28–26, home).
Boise State · No. 15
Boise State moved up 6 at No. 15 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 85.2. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 53.7 from record difficulty and 11.9 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 18.0, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak 0.4 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +18.0 points. The latest included result was a W against Washington State, 31–10 (away). Its scoring margin was +3 at halftime and +0 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Memphis (38–20, home).
Alabama · No. 16
Alabama held its position at No. 16 with a 6–2 record and a model score of 84.9. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 52.4 from record difficulty and 13.5 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.8 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.6, expectation shortfalls -0.6, and the current streak 0.2 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -18.4 points. The latest included result was a W against Texas A&M, 31–20 (home). Its scoring margin was +0 at halftime and -3 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Kentucky (45–17, away).
James Madison · No. 17
James Madison moved down 5 at No. 17 with a 7–1 record and a model score of 84.7. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 54.6 from record difficulty and 11.9 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.4 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.5, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +17.5 points. The latest included result was a L against App State, 31–34 (away). Its scoring margin was +4 at halftime and +8 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Liberty (20–13, home).
LSU · No. 18
LSU held its position at No. 18 with a 6–2 record and a model score of 83.2. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 50.7 from record difficulty and 14.4 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 16.6, expectation shortfalls -0.5, and the current streak 0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -18.5 points. The latest included result was a W against Auburn, 38–17 (away). Its scoring margin was +21 at halftime and +21 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Mississippi State (31–0, home).
SMU · No. 19
SMU moved up 13 at No. 19 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 82.6. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 52.8 from record difficulty and 10.8 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.4 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.8, expectation shortfalls -0.5, and the current streak 0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +17.8 points. The latest included result was a W against California, 59–20 (home). Its scoring margin was -3 at halftime and +18 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Florida State (27–24, away).
New Mexico · No. 20
New Mexico moved up 10 at No. 20 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 82.3. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 52.0 from record difficulty and 11.5 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.3 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.3, expectation shortfalls -0.1, and the current streak 0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +17.3 points. The latest included result was a W against North Dakota State, 21–16 (home). Its scoring margin was +11 at halftime and +5 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is North Dakota State (21–16, home).
Houston · No. 21
Houston moved down 13 at No. 21 with a 6–2 record and a model score of 82.1. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 51.1 from record difficulty and 12.7 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.7 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.2, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -17.3 points. The latest included result was a L against Utah, 13–21 (away). Its scoring margin was +3 at halftime and +6 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Oklahoma State (35–32, home).
Texas · No. 22
Texas moved down 2 at No. 22 with a 5–2 record and a model score of 82.0. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 50.2 from record difficulty and 13.5 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.9 score points. Quality wins contribute 16.7, expectation shortfalls -0.6, and the current streak 0.2 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -17.6 points. The latest included result was a W against Ole Miss, 34–27 (home). Its scoring margin was +21 at halftime and +7 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Ohio State (24–23, home).
Liberty · No. 23
Liberty moved up 15 at No. 23 with a 6–1 record and a model score of 81.2. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 51.5 from record difficulty and 11.4 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.3 score points. Quality wins contribute 16.9, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak 0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +16.9 points. The latest included result was a W against Kennesaw State, 34–6 (away). Its scoring margin was +11 at halftime and +21 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Delaware (30–14, away).
Ole Miss · No. 24
Ole Miss moved down 9 at No. 24 with a 5–2 record and a model score of 80.6. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 49.8 from record difficulty and 12.8 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.9 score points. Quality wins contribute 17.0, expectation shortfalls -0.6, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -17.1 points. The latest included result was a L against Texas, 27–34 (away). Its scoring margin was -21 at halftime and -7 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is LSU (32–24, home).
Tennessee · No. 25
Tennessee moved down 14 at No. 25 with a 6–2 record and a model score of 79.1. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 49.3 from record difficulty and 12.4 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.6 score points. Quality wins contribute 16.3, expectation shortfalls -0.3, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -17.5 points. The latest included result was a L against South Carolina, 24–27 (away). Its scoring margin was +4 at halftime and +4 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Alabama (26–10, home).
Iowa · No. 36
Iowa moved down 12 at No. 36 with a 5–2 record and a model score of 70.9. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 45.0 from record difficulty and 10.1 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 15.1, expectation shortfalls -0.5, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +15.1 points. The latest included result was a L against Minnesota, 10–13 (away). Its scoring margin was +0 at halftime and -7 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Michigan (20–19, away).
USC · No. 28
USC moved down 11 at No. 28 with a 6–2 record and a model score of 75.9. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 48.9 from record difficulty and 10.8 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.6 score points. Quality wins contribute 16.0, expectation shortfalls -1.1, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -16.4 points. The latest included result was a L against Wisconsin, 7–24 (away). Its scoring margin was -3 at halftime and -10 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Penn State (31–23, away).
Nebraska · No. 31
Nebraska moved down 6 at No. 31 with a 5–2 record and a model score of 72.8. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 44.1 from record difficulty and 12.5 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 15.3, expectation shortfalls -0.1, and the current streak -0.5 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -16.9 points. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Michigan State (31–13, away).
Florida · No. 27
Florida moved down 4 at No. 27 with a 5–2 record and a model score of 77.1. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 48.5 from record difficulty and 11.2 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.8 score points. Quality wins contribute 16.2, expectation shortfalls -0.6, and the current streak 0.2 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +16.2 points. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Texas (27–24, away).
Middle Tennessee · No. 82
Middle Tennessee moved up 32 at No. 82 with a 4–3 record and a model score of 39.6. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 26.3 from record difficulty and 4.0 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.4 score points. Quality wins contribute 8.0, expectation shortfalls -0.4, and the current streak 0.2 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from record: +9.6 points. The latest included result was a W against Florida International, 26–23 (away). Its scoring margin was +5 at halftime and +7 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Florida International (26–23, away).
TCU · No. 85
TCU moved down 32 at No. 85 with a 3–4 record and a model score of 38.3. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 20.2 from record difficulty and 10.6 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.6 score points. Quality wins contribute 6.9, expectation shortfalls -0.7, and the current streak -0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from predictive: -14.9 points. The latest included result was a L against West Virginia, 20–24 (home). Its scoring margin was +0 at halftime and +3 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Baylor (17–6, away).
Wyoming · No. 76
Wyoming moved up 29 at No. 76 with a 5–3 record and a model score of 43.1. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 29.3 from record difficulty and 4.4 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.3 score points. Quality wins contribute 8.6, expectation shortfalls -0.9, and the current streak 0.3 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +8.6 points. The latest included result was a W against Air Force, 28–14 (home). Its scoring margin was +15 at halftime and +7 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Air Force (28–14, home).
Cincinnati · No. 35
Cincinnati moved up 26 at No. 35 with a 5–2 record and a model score of 71.3. Its score includes 0.0 points from predictive strength, 45.4 from record difficulty and 9.6 from measured performance. Schedule strength contributes 1.5 score points. Quality wins contribute 15.0, expectation shortfalls -0.5, and the current streak 0.2 score points. The largest change in its weighted score came from quality wins: +15.0 points. The latest included result was a W against Texas Tech, 37–24 (home). Its scoring margin was +18 at halftime and +16 entering the fourth quarter. Its strongest-rated defeated opponent in the current model is Texas Tech (37–24, home).
Weighted component changes explain score movement, not an isolated causal effect of one statistic. Opponent ratings, other teams’ results, blend changes and model revisions can all affect rank. Missing game data is not counted as zero.